Modelling the Dynamics of COVID-19 Epidemic in Uganda and the Implications for National Mitigation Measures
As of May 1st, 2020, COVID-19 disease, caused by the SARS-COV2 virus, has resulted in 3.26 million confirmed cases and over 233,000 deaths globally. So far, Uganda has registered a total of 85 reported cases, 52 recoveries and 0 deaths. This scenario is unique and markedly different from what has been reported in other countries across the globe. Due to timely government interventions led by the president in enforcing the different forms of “social distancing measures”, the COVID-19 epidemic has not become fully established within the local communities. The majority (93%) of cases so far have been people who were infected from outside Uganda and “imported” through airports and by truck drivers arriving from neighboring countries (See Figure 1). As in many other countries, Uganda is in discussion to lift lockdown measures. In this regard, we provide scenarios derived from mathematical models to inform decisions on lifting the lockdown.
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